912
ACUS02 KWNS 180507
SWODY2
SPC AC 180505

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose
a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern
Appalachians to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia vicinity on
Sunday. Strong to severe storms may also develop across parts of
eastern Montana into North Dakota and Minnesota.

...Southern Appalachians to the Coastal Carolinas/Southern VA...

An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will persist on Sunday. At the
surface, a cold front will develop southward across VA toward the
NC/VA border. Near and south of this front, a very moist airmass
will be in place (70s F dewpoints), and strong heating will foster a
corridor of moderate instability. Deep-layer flow will remain
modest, with effective shear values typically only around 20-25 kt.
However, steep low-level lapse rates and PW values near/above 2
inches are present in forecast soundings. Storms that develop will
pose a risk for wet microbursts, and a greater wind risk may evolve
closer to the cold front where sufficient clustering occurs.

...Northern Plains into northern MN...

A compact upper low/shortwave trough over Alberta will develop
east/southeast on Sunday, emerging over the Canadian Prairies and
northern Plains. As this occurs, a belt of strengthening
west/northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A
surface cold front will develop southeast across eastern/southern MT
during the afternoon, and the Dakotas during the evening/overnight
hours. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this feature will transport
modest moisture northward into the area. Steep midlevel lapse rates
will support 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40+ kt effective shear
magnitudes. Initial convection may be cellular, posing a risk for
isolated large hail. Given steep low-level lapse rates, strong
outflow winds also will be possible, and some potential for a bowing
cluster of storms is possible if sufficient storm coverage occurs
ahead of the cold front from southern/eastern MT into the Dakotas
through evening. Overnight storms may persist eastward into northern
MN, though severe potential is less certain across this area given
stronger capping.

..Leitman.. 07/18/2026

$$