454
ACUS02 KWNS 301722
SWODY2
SPC AC 301720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms appear possible from Iowa
southward into the Ozark Plateau, and over the central and southern
High Plains Friday afternoon and evening. Sporadic occurrences of
damaging wind and large hail will be the primary hazards, with a
conditional risk for a few tornadoes over Missouri.

...Southern IA into MO and northern AR...
A zone of severe potential remains evident on Friday from southeast
IA across much of MO and into northern AR, though complicating
factors remain.

A shortwave trough will move southeastward toward the lower MO and
mid MS Valleys, which will enhance mid and upper level winds.
However, temperatures aloft will not cool much, and as such,
midlevel lapse rates will remain relatively poor. In addition, early
day storms are expected, and at least some degree of temporary
stabilization may occur, especially if an MCS develops over NE/KS
Thursday night as depicted by some models.

That said, low-level moisture will likely either remain intact or
redevelop as any residual outflows modify. Daytime heating and 70s F
dewpoints will still result in MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg just ahead
of the cold front which will extend from the IA/MO border area
southwestward into northwest AR by 00Z.

Southwest 850 mb winds will maintain warm advection toward the MS
Valley, and this is also where low-level SRH will be greatest. Given
decent model agreement with redevelopment late in the day along the
cold front, a small Slight Risk has been introduced, covering
damaging wind and conditional tornado potential.

...Eastern CO and NM...
Mid to upper-level northwesterly winds may increase a bit on Friday
as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across the central Plains,
with 20-25 kt speeds at 500 mb expected. Minor cooling aloft may
occur across the High Plains as this wave glances the area.

Surface winds will veer to northeasterly by late afternoon,
maintaining moisture and enhancing upslope flow. Storms are likely
to form over the higher terrain of southeast CO into much of
northeast NM, with mean winds supporting southeastward storm
motions. It appears enough storm coverage may develop to support
locally severe outflow winds through early evening.

..Jewell.. 07/30/2026

$$