991
ACUS02 KWNS 310537
SWODY2
SPC AC 310535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND PART OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind
appear possible across central Kentucky, middle Tennessee, and part
of northern Alabama Saturday afternoon and evening. A broader area
of more isolated damaging wind potential will exist from parts of
the Ohio Valley into portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
Isolated severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail may
occur over New Mexico into southeast Arizona Saturday afternoon into
evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over the mid MS Valley Saturday morning will
progress into the lower OH and TN Valleys with a belt of stronger
mid/upper-level winds rounding the trough base in those areas. In
the low levels, a surface low will develop from central IL into
northern IN during the day before reaching southeast lower MI late
Saturday night. A 30-35 kt low-level jet (LLJ) will precede the
surface low over the OH and TN Valleys, supporting a corridor of
stronger low-level shear in those areas. Meanwhile, a cold front
will advance through the lower and middle OH Valley, TN Valley, and
much of the lower MS Valley with the western extension of the front
pushing south through central and southwest TX.


...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central Gulf Coast states...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday
across portions of the OH and TN Valleys into MS and AL within the
warm-conveyor air stream preceding the surface low and cold front.
In the wake of the early-day storms, and where stronger heating can
occur, boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will
contribute to an axis of MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg north of
the OH River, to as high as 2000-2500 J/kg from middle TN into parts
of MS and AL.

Renewed thunderstorm development is expected by early- to
mid-afternoon along the cold front and within the relatively narrow
instability axis over IN with subsequent southward development
through KY and TN into MS and AL. The strongest deep-layer shear of
30-35 kt is forecast from KY to north of the OH River with vector
orientations largely perpendicular to the front. Vertical shear
decreases with southward extent along the front; however, that may
be offset to some extent by a more favorable thermodynamic
environment.

It currently appears that the most favorable overlap of instability
and at least modest vertical shear will reside from central KY into
northern AL Saturday afternoon into evening, where a level 2/Slight
Risk has been delineated. Damaging winds are likely to be the
primary hazard with the most intense storms. Some tornado risk may
develop across portions of KY into IN and OH Saturday afternoon into
evening along the LLJ, where low-level shear is forecast to be
stronger. However, forecast soundings indicate generally poor
low-level lapse rates in areas of strongest shear, which may tend to
limit a more substantial threat. Large hail potential appears
limited due to warm mid-level temperatures and resultant poor lapse
rates.


...New Mexico into southeast Arizona...

The 00Z models continue to suggest that a weak mid-level disturbance
will progress south through the central and southern High Plains on
Saturday. The glancing influence of that feature coupled with an
increasing upslope component in the low-level wind field is expected
to support widely scattered thunderstorms by afternoon along the
Raton Mesa, as well as Sangre De Cristo and Sacramento Mountains.
Additional storms may form along the high terrain in the
west-central NM. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s combined with
steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support a moderately unstable
air mass with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg.

Deep-layer shear is expected to strengthen to 30-40 kt by afternoon,
suggesting the potential for organized storm modes with the initial
hazard being marginally severe hail. Individual storms may tend to
cluster by late afternoon into evening with the 00Z CAMs indicating
an increased potential for severe wind gusts, especially from
south-central NM into southeast AZ.

..Mead.. 07/31/2026

$$