917
ACUS02 KWNS 131636
SWODY2
SPC AC 131634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Friday
through Friday night.

...Discussion...
A more prominent blocking regime centered across the northern
Atlantic continues to evolve.  Models indicate that this will
include the development of a broad cyclonic regime centered across
the Canadian Maritimes by early Friday, which will persist through
the remainder of the period.  Some amplification of large-scale
troughing extending southward offshore of the remainder of the
Atlantic Seaboard is forecast, downstream of a significant mid-level
trough and embedded cyclone migrating northeast and east of the
Canadian Maritimes, on the leading edge of a more progressive
regime.

Upstream, broad short wave ridging appears likely to shift inland of
the British Columbia coast, across and east of the Canadian/northern
U.S. Rockies, to the north of an increasingly cut-off low offshore
of the central and southern California coast.

Models continue to indicate that the modifying mid-level cold core
of the eastern Pacific low (including coldest 500 mb temperatures
warming above -24 C) will generally remain offshore through this
period.  While it may tend to pivot away from coastal areas
near/south of San Francisco Bay, and slowly toward southern
California coastal areas Friday night, the leading edge of stronger
forcing for ascent/cooling aloft supportive of low-topped
thunderstorm development appears likely to remain well west of the
southern California coastal waters through 12Z Saturday.

Potential for thunderstorm development Friday through Friday night
appears largely confined to a plume of lower latitude eastern
Pacific moisture return, advecting ahead of the low into the
southern periphery of the stronger mid-latitude westerlies.  Models
suggest that this may contribute to developing layers of weak
conditional instability rooted in the lower/mid-tropospheric, across
the southern California coast through portions of the southern
Sierra Nevada and Mojave Desert, Great Basin, northern Rockies, and
northern Great Plains.  Weak convection becoming briefly capable of
producing a few lightning strikes may not be entirely out of the
question anywhere within this corridor.  However, due to likely
sparse coverage and rather low predictability, probabilities for
thunderstorms still appear generally less than 10 percent.

..Kerr.. 11/13/2025

$$