Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
546 ACUS02 KWNS 190544 SWODY2 SPC AC 190542 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will extend from the mid MS/OH Valley toward the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, with an upper trough over the western states. Moderate southwest flow aloft will stretch from the eastern Great Basin into the northern Plains, with a stronger trough over Quebec. This trough will flatten the ridge over the northeastern US, aiding storm development during the day. Storms will also focus over the central High Plains during the afternoon and evening, with rising heights and increasing southerly 850 mb winds in a warm advection regime. Elsewhere, the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone will continue westward across portions of Mexico. ...Northeastern States... Strong heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, removing any convective inhibition by midday. Dewpoints into the upper 60s F combined with slight cooling aloft due to the flattening ridge will yield moderate instability with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms are expected to form along a weak surface trough, where convergence will be minimal but sufficient. The result should be an east-west oriented zone of thunderstorms, mainly pulse to multicellular, with potential for locally damaging winds. Small to marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger cells. Given the relative concentration of storms, a 15% Slight Risk appears warranted for wind. ...Southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle... As the warm front lifts north, low-level moisture will increase across NE, with easterly winds near the boundary bringing 50s F dewpoints into southeast WY and far northeast CO as well. Strong heating will yield convection forming over the high terrain, with isolated severe cells expected during the late afternoon. Hail will be possible initially, with a localized wind threat as activity bows eastward near the boundary and into NE. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the cellular activity early due to the steep lapse rates and enhanced shear near the front. ...Far southern TX... A few storms may linger early on Thursday as the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone move farther inland into Mexico. The combination of upper 70s F dewpoints and enhanced low-shear could yield gusty winds, but overall any severe potential will dwindle rapidly throughout the day. ..Jewell.. 06/19/2024 $$