369
ACUS02 KWNS 291731
SWODY2
SPC AC 291729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of southern/central Arizona on Friday. Damaging wind gusts and large
hail will be possible with the strongest storms.

...Synopsis...
A broad trough off the Northwest coast will strengthen on Friday.
Within the Plains, upper-level ridging will intensify from the
northern Rockies into parts of the central Plains. Within the
Southwest and southern Plains, a developing, nebulous shortwave
trough will lift northeastward out of northern Mexico and lead to
widespread showers/thunderstorms across parts of these regions. A
lingering surface boundary near the lower Missouri Valley will make
slow northward progress.

...Arizona...
Surface troughing within the lower Colorado Valley vicinity will
draw low-level moisture into southern/central Arizona. Cloud cover
will increase through the day as an intensifying shortwave trough
within the subtropical jet stream approaches the Baja Peninsula.
Even so, at least areas of filtered surface heating are possible.
This, along with subtle mid-level ascent and cooler temperatures
aloft, will support scattered convection during the afternoon along
the Mogollon Rim and within the surface trough. MLCAPE of 500-1250
J/kg will be possible. Effective shear will not be overly strong
(20-30 kt), but will be slowly increasing through the day. The
modest buoyancy and impacts from convective outflow will likely
result in storm severity being short-lived. Marginally severe hail
and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest activity.

...Lower Missouri Valley...
Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Friday morning
near and north of the surface boundary. 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE could
support a stronger storm or two. Small hail appears possible.
However, poor lapse rates, weak effective shear, and slight warming
at mid levels will keep overall severe potential low.

..Wendt.. 10/29/2026

$$