601
ACUS02 KWNS 140533
SWODY2
SPC AC 140532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Showers and a few thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind
gusts across parts of the upper Ohio Valley Saturday evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley...

An upper ridge over from Ontario/Quebec into the Ohio Valley will
break down/shift east across the Northeast through Saturday evening
as a deepening shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes and
Midwest. At this occurs, a deepening surface low will pivot eastward
across southern Ontario and into New England by early Sunday
morning. A trailing cold front will develop southward across the
Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Northeast during the nighttime
hours. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level flow will
transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward, with surface
dewpoints expected to mainly be in the 50s F.

Forecast soundings indicated meager instability may develop (less
than 500 J/kg) with cooler temperatures aloft in the 700-500 mb
layer. The lower troposphere thermodynamic profiles are somewhat
lackluster, with warmer 850-700 mb temperatures noted in both RAP
and NAM soundings, resulting in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless,
strengthening westerly flow in the lowest 3 km to around 40-50 kt
amid meager instability could result in isolated strong gusts for a
few hours during the evening before convection weakens with eastward
extent into the overnight hours.

...Coastal Southern CA...

An upper low offshore the southern CA coast will move inland on
Saturday. At the surface, a weak low and associated wind shift will
move inland in the 12-18z time period. Forecast soundings indicate
very meager surface-based instability will be present. Currently,
forecast guidance varies considerably, with RAP forecast soundings
showing virtually no surface-based instability compared to NAM
forecast soundings showing 100-300 J/kg SBCAPE, with HRRR forecast
soundings somewhere in between. Nevertheless, 30-40 kt flow in the
1-3 km layer could result in locally gusty winds, especially in
higher elevations through midday, with low-topped convective
elements.

..Leitman.. 11/14/2025

$$