439
ACUS02 KWNS 070600
SWODY2
SPC AC 070558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms capable of large to very
large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible Monday
afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and
the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from
the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic
damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south.

...Synopsis...

A mid-level jet streak and associated channeled vorticity maximum
initially from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains will
lift northeast into Manitoba, ahead of an amplifying short-wave
trough moving through the Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies.
Elsewhere, loosely organized troughing initially along the MS Valley
will shift northeast into the Great Lakes and OH Valley.

At the surface, a front initially stretching from the central
Dakotas to low pressure over western KS is expected to weaken
through the day in response to falling pressures across the northern
Rockies. A weak cyclone is expected to persist over southwest KS or
northwest OK, with a dryline extending southwest into western TX.


...Great Plains...

With the early-day passage of the lead short-wave trough through the
northern High Plains, mid-level heights may rebound slightly during
the afternoon, with negligible forcing for ascent indicated in model
guidance. As such, the most probable location for isolated to widely
scattered severe-storm development appears to be along favored
terrain from north of the Palmer Divide to along the Cheyenne Ridge.
There, moist upslope flow will become established by afternoon,
beneath a plume of steep lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. Vertical shear is expected to strengthen through the day with
effective bulk shear increasing to around 50 kt by late afternoon
into early evening. As such, the potential will exist for supercells
capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or
two. The severe-threat may move into the adjacent High Plains Monday
evening before the storms weaken.

Across the lower elevations of the Plains there is considerably more
model spread in the timing and location of storms through the
forecast period, likely as a result of the weak forcing. The
residual surface front from eastern SD through central NE into
western KS, and south along the dryline into the OK/TX Panhandles
will be viable locations for diurnally enhanced storms amidst a
moderate to strongly unstable air mass. As such, isolated
occurrences for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
Stronger deep-layer shear is forecast from northern KS into the
northern Plains, which may support a longer-lived, more organized
storm threat. However, given the model variability mentioned above,
no additional level 2/Slight Risk areas will be highlighted with
this forecast.

Finally, it appears a separate, elevated thunderstorm regime could
materialize early Tuesday morning from parts of eastern MT through
northern ND, where some large hail threat could develop.


...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South...

A number of models indicate the potential for a complex of
thunderstorms to be ongoing Monday morning across portions of the
Ozark Plateau, aided by low-level warm advection along a modest
low-level jet. That activity is expected to continue east/southeast
through the day, with some potential for cold pool organization and
related damaging wind potential as the system encounters a moist and
moderately unstable air mass.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

$$