956
ACUS02 KWNS 251740
SWODY2
SPC AC 251739

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND INTO FLORIDA...AND ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to
Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of
Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main
concern.

...Synopsis...
A weak upper low will remain over Florida tomorrow, with relatively
cool midlevel temperatures over the Southeast, although warmer
compared to today. Otherwise, much of the east will remain beneath
an upper ridge. Around the northern periphery of this ridge, modest
southwest flow aloft will stretch from the central Plains into the
Great Lakes and Northeast, with relatively warm temperatures aloft.
To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will push east across
Montana.

At the surface, an expansive area of moisture will persist from the
central and southern Plains eastward to the Mid Atlantic, south of a
cold front. This front will extend from KS into southern WI and
Lower MI, and also from central NY into eastern PA.

...Mid Atlantic to the Southeast...
A broad area of moderate to strong instability is forecast from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Thursday. Shear is expected to be
very weak through the period, but moderate to strong instability and
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper low will
provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for some damaging wind
gusts. More focused areas of strong to severe storms may exist near
outflow boundaries from D1/Wednesday convection.

...Central/Southern Plains to the Great Lakes...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along a
frontal zone from Kansas to Wisconsin on Thursday afternoon/evening.
Shear is expected to remain weak (20 to 25 knots), but strong
instability will support the threat for some damaging wind gusts.
Farther south, across western Oklahoma, shear will be very weak, but
moderate instability and deep mixing (to around 600mb) will support
some threat for downbursts and isolated wind gusts.

...Montana...
Moderate mid-level flow is expected to overspread northern Montana
on Thursday where a deeply mixed boundary layer (deeper than 3km) is
forecast. While instability should be limited by meager moisture, it
should be sufficient for a few storms. Moderate shear (25 to 30
knots) and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support a threat for
some severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 06/25/2025

$$