782
ACUS02 KWNS 031649
SWODY2
SPC AC 031648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible
on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and
central High Plains.

...MT...
Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough currently approaching
the OR/CA coast.  This feature will track northeastward and begin
affecting parts of ID/MT by Monday afternoon.  Steep low and mid
level lapse rates will result in sufficient CAPE for scattered
thunderstorm development over the mountains of central ID and
western MT by mid-afternoon.  These storms will become more numerous
and spread into central and eventually eastern MT through the
evening.  Favorably strong westerly winds aloft will promote a risk
of a few organized/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and
hail.  Cloud cover and the extent of afternoon destabilization over
central MT lends sufficient uncertainty to maintain only MRGL risk
at this time.

...High Plains...
The upper ridge will remain centered roughly over the central
Rockies, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to
form near/east of the ridge axis from the Black Hills region
southward to the OK/TX Panhandles.  Any of one of these high-based
storm clusters could produce locally damaging wind gusts or hail,
but limited/uncertain coverage precludes an upgrade to SLGT for any
part of this corridor at this time.

..Hart.. 08/03/2025

$$