761
ACUS02 KWNS 050645
SWODY2
SPC AC 050644

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of the
eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia.

...Discussion...
An upper low will move slowly east across the Great Lakes with a
leading speed max farther east into the Mid Atlantic. Moderate
southwest winds and cooling aloft will overspread that region during
day, with a surface trough developing from southern New England into
the eastern Carolinas.

Ahead of a cold front, southwest low-level winds with 20-30 kt 850
mb speeds will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints from eastern VA
southward. Heating will be limited as rain and storms are likely to
be ongoing Friday morning from southern New England into Virginia.
Increasing large scale ascent will further expand storm coverage by
midday into the Carolinas.

A narrow plume of MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg is possible ahead of the
ongoing activity/outflow, with effective shear of 35-40 kt. A few
bowing structures may occur with locally damaging gust, or perhaps a
brief tornado. However, the primary mitigating factor will be
relatively poor low-level lapse rates.

..Jewell.. 11/05/2026

$$