838
ACUS02 KWNS 051728
SWODY2
SPC AC 051726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may occur over small parts of the Great Plains,
and over the Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts.
Isolated hail may occur with the Northern Plains/Ozarks activity.

...Northwest Oklahoma into southwest Missouri...
A stalled surface boundary is expected to be draped across southern
Kansas into central Missouri. The Missouri portion of the boundary
will likely be reinforced by early day convection/cloud cover.
Strong heating south of the boundary will allow for locally enhanced
surface convergence. Storm development is possible along the
boundary, though it remains uncertain where this development is most
probable. The presence of the broad trough to the north will support
sufficient shear that storms would be at least marginally organized.
Damaging wind gusts will likely be the main threat with this
activity with marginal hail possible where buoyancy will be locally
greater in Missouri.

...Northeast...
Areas of modest to strong heating of a very moist (70+ F dewpoints)
airmass will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid-afternoon.
Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but enhanced mid-level
winds associated with the Great Lakes trough will promote marginally
organized clusters/linear segments. Isolated wind damage will be
possible with this activity.

...Nebraska/South Dakota...
A secondary cold front will develop within the northern Plains.
Moisture return ahead of the boundary will bring upper 50s to low
60s F dewpoint northward. Mid-level heights are forecast to rise
slightly during the period. Given effective shear of around 40 kt
across the boundary, an isolated supercell or two will be possible
where surface heating can remove MLCIN. Severe winds and marginally
severe hail would be the expected hazards. The Marginal risk remains
where confidence in storm development is highest, though a storm or
two could develop farther northeast. Confidence remains too low for
an expansion of probabilities.

..Wendt.. 08/05/2026

$$