698
ACUS02 KWNS 270522
SWODY2
SPC AC 270520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.

...Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley...

A midlevel trough will move from the High Plains to the Upper MS
Valley on Wednesday. This will bring enhanced mid/upper
southwesterly flow across the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley atop
modestly increasing boundary layer moisture. Vertically veering wind
profiles and effective shear values greater than 35 kt typically
could support supercell thunderstorms. However, surface-based
thunderstorm develop appears quite conditional. Surface dewpoints in
the 50s to near 60 F will be possible ahead of a surface boundary
from southern MN into western IA and far eastern NE. Cool
temperatures atop the modest boundary layer moisture will support
MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Near neutral height tendencies are
expected, and forecast soundings indicate poor low-level lapse rates
and possible inhibition in layers between the surface and 750 mb.
Furthermore, 00z HRRR/RRFS and HREF/REFS do not show a robust signal
for sustained convection within the more favorable warm sector.
While elevated storms could pose a risk for small hail, the overall
risk appears limited in the absence of surface-based storms,
precluding severe probabilities at this time. Depending on trends,
probabilities could be included in subsequent outlooks.

...Far SW TX vicinity...

Isolated thunderstorms may develop near higher terrain within a
modest upslope flow and low-level warm advection regime late
Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Surface dewpoints in the
mid/upper 50s will aid in modest destabilization as temperatures
warm into the upper 70s/low 80s F. Deep-layer flow is expected to be
weak, but vertically veering profiles will support around 20-25 kt
effective shear magnitudes. A couple of storm could briefly become
strong and produce gusty winds given steepened low-level lapse rates
or small hail. Overall, severe potential appears too limited to
include probabilities.

..Leitman.. 10/27/2026

$$