393
ACUS03 KWNS 220832
SWODY3
SPC AC 220830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are expected across eastern Texas into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated
Large hail and a tornado or two will be the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will deamplify as it moves from the central
Plains to the southern Great Lakes on Monday. A secondary mid-level
trough will amplify as it moves through the northern Plains and into
the Upper Midwest. A more consolidated surface low will develop
across the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. A warm front will
lift from near the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by
Monday evening. A somewhat diffuse cold frontal zone will extend
from the Ozarks to the southern Plains.

...Eastern Texas into the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Rich low-level moisture will advect northward across East Texas and
Louisiana on Monday. This will result in moderate instability ahead
of the frontal zone from East Texas into Louisiana. Extensive
cloudcover may be a limiting factor to greater destabilization, but
sufficient instability is expected for strong to severe storms
Monday afternoon/evening. A messier storm mode is expected near the
ArkLaTex, but a more favorable zone may exist south of this area
where supercell storm mode will be favored. Long hodographs with
largely streamwise low-level hodographs may result in some tornado
threat, in addition to the large hail threat. While the greatest
threat is expected during the late afternoon to early evening, some
threat will likely persist into the overnight period as a mostly
uncapped moderately unstable airmass is expected to persist amid
rich low-level moisture.

..Bentley.. 11/22/2025

$$