579
ACUS03 KWNS 141939
SWODY3
SPC AC 141938

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible within the Mid-Atlantic and in parts of
the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Embedded within broad northwesterly flow aloft, a mid-level
shortwave trough will promote the development of a surface
trough/modest low within the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. This trough
is expected to extend southward into the Blue Ridge during the
afternoon. Some convection will be possible in the northern
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday morning. Outflow/differential heating from
this activity will combine with the surface trough to promote
scattered storm development during the afternoon. Mid 70s dewpoints
and temperatures reaching the 90s F in some locations will lead to
moderate/strong destabilization during the afternoon. Moderate
mid-level flow should support at least modestly organized storms
which could eventually evolve into one or more clusters. Wind damage
will be possible with this activity.

...Central High Plains...
A surface high behind a cold front will keep easterly surface winds
into the higher terrain of the central Rockies. Low-level moisture
may be a touch higher than previous days (perhaps low 60s F) along
with warmer surface temperatures. Effective shear from the Front
Range into southeast Wyoming will be 35-40 kt with long hodographs.
Given the potential for a few supercells during the afternoon,
severe probabilities have been increased in the area with greatest
confidence for large hail/severe winds.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Thunderstorm development is probable along parts of southward-moving
cold front during the afternoon/early evening. Even with only
weak/modest shear parallel to the front, a southward propagating
cluster or two may develop given the frontal motion. The primary
uncertainty is where this will occur given lack of stronger
convergence along much of the boundary. With steep low-level lapse
rates south of the front along with moderate to strong instability,
damaging winds would be possible with these storms.

..Wendt.. 08/14/2026

$$