895
ACUS03 KWNS 100731
SWODY3
SPC AC 100730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and
northern High Plains. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible from parts of the mid Missouri Valley east-southeastward
into the southern Appalachians.

...Central and Northern Plains...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday from
the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Within the flow, a subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central and northern
High plains during the afternoon. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to move southward in the central Plains, with a lee trough
located in the High Plains. During the day, upslope flow will help
low-level convergence to become maximized along the lee trough,
which will the primary focus for convective initiation Wednesday
afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the trough and
move eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the
late afternoon and early evening.

Along the western edge of the moist airmass, surface dewpoints are
forecast to be mostly in the 60s F, which should result in moderate
instability by afternoon. Late afternoon forecast soundings from
North Platte, Nebraska northward to east of Rapid City, South Dakota
have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range with low to mid-level
lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support a supercell threat during
the late afternoon and early evening. Supercells will be capable of
severe wind gusts and isolated large hail.

...Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southern
Appalachians...
Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place on Wednesday from the
Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a very
moist airmass will also be in place over this same area. Surface
dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong
instability by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
be possible near outflow boundaries as low-level convergence becomes
maximized in the afternoon. Across much of this moist and unstable
airmass, moderate deep-layer shear will be in place supporting an
isolated wind-damage threat. The wind-damage threat should be
greatest in the late afternoon and early evening as low-level lapse
rates become steep.

..Broyles.. 08/10/2026

$$