314
ACUS03 KWNS 151931
SWODY3
SPC AC 151930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and
parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas.

...Central to Northern Plains...
As an upper low moves into northern Ontario, gradual height falls
will occur into the northern Plains on Monday. Midlevel
northwesterlies of 40-50 kt will be common over the Dakotas and MN,
with 30 kt flow southward toward I-80. A cold front will move across
the Dakotas and into MN, with the front stalling over NE. Dewpoints
in the 60s, strong heating and steep lapse rates will favor areas of
moderate instability ahead of the front, with storms developing late
afternoon. Scattered cells may produce large hail along this
boundary, with an additional threat of damaging winds and possibly
evening MCS over NE.

...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas...
Mid to high level winds of 20-30 kt will remain over the region on
Monday, with relatively warm temperatures aloft. Still, substantial
moisture will remain in place, with areas of moderate instability
developing as the surface trough deepens. An uncapped air mass and
convergence along the wind shift will support scattered afternoon
storms, and some may produce locally damaging gusts as they travel
southeastward through the evening.

..Jewell.. 08/15/2026

$$