Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
693 ACUS03 KWNS 210731 SWODY3 SPC AC 210730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday from parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic into the Ohio Valley. ...New England into the Ohio Valley... An upper trough is forecast to gradually amplify from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday. Guidance continues to vary with the timing and amplitude of embedded shortwaves within the larger-scale trough, but in general, one shortwave may move across New England during the day, while another moves southeast over the Great Lakes region during the afternoon/evening. A surface low is generally forecast to move from the upper Great Lakes into southern New England, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Northeast into the Ohio Valley. Depending on the potential influence of early-day convection, moderate buoyancy may develop along/ahead of the cold front, and thunderstorm development is expected as soon as late morning, with increasing coverage into the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear from the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England will support potential for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters may be capable of producing damaging wind and perhaps some hail. A tornado also will be possible, if a supercell or two can be sustained within moderately enhanced low-level flow/SRH. Farther southwest, modest northwesterly flow aloft could support a few strong to severe storms across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon/evening, with an attendant threat of isolated damaging wind and hail. ..Dean.. 06/21/2024 $$