372
ACUS03 KWNS 160647
SWODY3
SPC AC 160645

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appear low/uncertain on Friday.

...Synopsis...

Broad, cyclonic upper flow will persist across the northern tier of
the U.S. on Friday. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge will intensify
over the Southeast and southern Plains. A weak shortwave impulse
and/or MCV is forecast to move from the OH Valley toward the
Chesapeake Bay vicinity near a stalled surface front. This may
provide focus for some severe potential Friday afternoon/early
evening. However, confidence in this scenario is low as prior day`s
convection will heavily influence convective evolution on Friday.

Further west, a surface trough/weak lee low development across the
central High Plains will allow for northward transport of richer
boundary layer moisture from the southern in the central and
northern Plains. Forcing mechanisms are unclear, and capping may
suppress convection. If storms can develop in the warm advection
regime, some severe potential would be possible given the very moist
and unstable environment. Large model disparity also is noted in the
location and evolution of the Plains surface low. Overall the risk
appears too uncertain/conditional at this time to include
probabilities.

..Leitman.. 07/16/2025

$$