151
ACUS03 KWNS 011926
SWODY3
SPC AC 011925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the central Great Plains
into Missouri Ozarks late Wednesday afternoon into early evening,
accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind.

...Discussion...
Tuesday into Wednesday, models indicate little change to the
amplified large-scale pattern across the mid-latitude eastern
Pacific through North America.  Mid/upper troughing will be
maintained to the east of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, reinforced by
one vigorous short wave trough forecast to continue digging
southeast of the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, as a
similar upstream perturbation digs southeast of the Northwest
Territories through eastern Canadian Prairies.

A surface cold front associated with the lead impulse is forecast to
continue surging southeastward through the remainder of the
Midwest/lower Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys and central Great
Plains, accompanied by notable further low-level drying.  Seasonably
high moisture content will generally remain confined to a plume
across the central Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula into
southwestern Atlantic, on the southern through southeastern
periphery of the larger-scale mid/upper troughing.

...Central Great Plains into Missouri Ozarks...
Mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading the region, to the
southwest of the primary digging mid-level troughing/evolving low,
remains unclear due to lingering model spread.  However, models
suggest that boundary-layer moisture will remain sufficient to
support moderate potential instability beneath a pre-frontal plume
of steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates.

Focusing on the southward advancing cold front, and pre-frontal
surface troughing, at least isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development appears possible by late Wednesday
afternoon.  Beneath strengthening northwesterly mid-level flow, the
environment may become conducive to supercells and one or two small
organizing clusters with potential to produce severe hail and wind,
before convection weakens during the evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

..Kerr.. 09/01/2025

$$