934
ACUS03 KWNS 250731
SWODY3
SPC AC 250730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the central High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic to the
Northeast.

...Northeast...
A broad mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward toward the
Northeast on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Quebec
with a cold front extending southward into the Northeast and eastern
Great Lakes. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of the front
with broad ascent supporting storm development both along and ahead
of the cold front. Multicell clusters capable of damaging winds, and
perhaps isolated large hail, are expected. A more focused region of
greater potential may exist from central Pennsylvania into eastern
New York. The potential for cloud cover across the region casts some
uncertainty and therefore, confidence was not high enough for a
Slight Risk at this time.

...Central High Plains...
Isolated to scattered storms are expected within an upslope flow
regime from eastern Colorado into western Nebraska and southwest
South Dakota on Thursday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show
moderate instability with 30 to 35 knots of northwesterly effective
shear. This could support some supercell potential including some 2+
inch hail and 75+ mph wind gusts. Isolated storm coverage remains
the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities
at this time.

...Lower MS Valley...
Moderate to strong instability is expected across the Lower MS
Valley on Thursday. Shear will be weak, but there is some potential
for a more focused cluster of storms to develop, perhaps associated
with a remnant MCV from Day2/Wed convection across Arkansas. If a
more organized cluster develops, the moist environment and moderate
to strong instability may support some damaging wind gusts. Given
uncertainties about the location and intensity of Day 1 and Day 2
convection, confidence is not high enough to add severe weather
probabilities at this time.

..Bentley/Afwa.. 08/25/2026

$$