251
ACUS03 KWNS 031931
SWODY3
SPC AC 031930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple strong thunderstorms will be possible from the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the southern Plains and across parts of
Oregon on Friday, though the potential for organized severe storms
appears low.

...Discussion...
A broad midlevel trough centered on the Great Lakes region will
shift slightly eastward through the period, as a midlevel speed
maximum advances east-northeastward from the Great Lakes into
Quebec. A related surface low will track northeastward from Ontario
into Quebec, while a cold front extents southwestward across the OH
Valley to a separate surface low in the southern Great Plains. Given
a slow east-southeastward motion of the front and large-scale
forcing for ascent lagging behind, thunderstorms may tend to be
anafrontal. However, if any thunderstorms can develop
along/immediately ahead of the front from the OH/TN Valleys into the
southern Plains, ample moisture/buoyancy and around 30 kt of
midlevel west-southwesterly flow would conditionally support a
couple strong/loosely organized storms.

Farther west, a midlevel trough will approach the Pacific Northwest
through the period. Related forcing for ascent will promote
scattered thunderstorms across OR. Moderately enhanced midlevel flow
and steep deep-layer lapse rates may promote a couple strong storms
capable of producing locally strong wind gusts.

..Weinman.. 09/03/2025

$$