665
ACUS03 KWNS 301918
SWODY3
SPC AC 301917

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible across portions of
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Central Gulf Coast states,
and over parts of central and eastern New Mexico Saturday afternoon
and evening.

...OH Valley southward into MS and AL...
A shortwave trough will move from the mid MS Valley southeastward
into the OH and TN Valleys on Saturday, with modest 25-30 kt
midlevel southwesterlies developing ahead of it. At the surface, low
pressure will move across southern IL and IN during the day, with a
cold front extending southwestward across the lower MS Valley by
late afternoon. A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the cold
front, with 70s F dewpoints.

Areas of early rain/storms are likely to be ongoing within the warm
advection zone east of the low over IN/KY/TN, but southwest surface
winds and heating will result in moderate instability redeveloping
ahead of the cold front with MLCAPE averaging 2000-2500 J/kg. The
front will easily support scattered storms by mid afternoon from IN
southward into MS/AL. Marginal deep-layer shear combined with
substantial moisture content should yield corridors of mixed-mode
storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps isolated marginal hail.
A weak tornado or two cannot be ruled out where low-level winds are
backed within the very moist/low-LCL environment, but overall it
appears these would be brief.

...Much of eastern NM...
Winds aloft will adjust to more of a northerly direction on
Saturday, with a cold front plunging south into TX. Western portions
of this front will extend into eastern NM, where 50s F dewpoints
will remain, along with easterly surface winds.

Midlevel lapse rates will be relatively steep, with the northerly
flow regime resulting in around 40 kt deep-layer effective shear.
This combination should support a few severe storms capable of hail
or damaging gusts as storms develop over the higher terrain and move
generally southward through the evening.

..Jewell.. 07/30/2026

$$