799
ACUS03 KWNS 181922
SWODY3
SPC AC 181921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on
Thursday. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited at this
time. Isolated thunderstorms may extend into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys as well, though this activity is not expected to be severe.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing will prevail across the western U.S.
through the day, with a low-level warm-air advection regime
persisting across the Southern Plains into the TN Valley on
Thursday. Two embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are poised to
pivot around the broader upper trough Thursday afternoon into the
overnight period. The first mid-level shortwave trough will eject
into the southern Plains/Lower MS Valley region and de-amplify while
the second shortwave trough attempts to evolve into a cut-off low
over southern CA. The passage of the first trough over the southern
Plains will encourage weak surface low development around the KS/OK
border during the second half of the period. A broad fetch of
moisture will be maintained within the warm-air advection regime, so
any upper support overspreading the moist axis across the southern
Plains into the TN Valley will support continued scattered
thunderstorm development.

The de-amplification of the passing mid-level impulse will encourage
deep-layer veering of the low to mid-level wind fields across the
southern Plains. While scattered thunderstorms and more widespread
showers/cloudiness will be ongoing Thursday morning, the deep-layer
veered flow may aid in persistent training showers and thunderstorms
within the warm-air advection regime. The best chance for training
thunderstorms will be from central TX into OK Thursday afternoon
into the evening hours. Given reduced boundary-layer buoyancy with
the training storms, severe potential still appears nebulous. Some
guidance suggests that stronger storms (perhaps accompanied by an
isolated severe threat) may develop across parts of central TX late
Thursday afternoon. However, deep-layer ascent will glance this
region to the north, with forecast soundings showing appreciable
mid-level warming over central TX, so no severe probabilities have
been introduced at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/18/2025

$$