218
ACUS03 KWNS 240730
SWODY3
SPC AC 240729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the central
High Plains, Ozarks into the Lower Mississippi Valley, and in the
Midwest into the Great Lakes.

...Midwest into the Great Lakes...
A mid-level shortwave trough will advance through the Great Lakes on
Wednesday. A surface cold front will move southeastward through the
period with thunderstorms developing along it by mid-afternoon.
Upper 60 to low 70s dewpoints will result in moderate instability.
Multicell clusters and perhaps a few supercells will be possible
along and ahead of the cold front during the afternoon and into the
evening. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat. However, some low-level wind shear could result in a
localized tornado threat with any supercells which develop.

...Central High Plains...
A weakening of the mid-level ridge will support scattered storm
development within a weak upslope flow regime across eastern
Colorado on Wednesday. These storms will form on the southwestern
periphery of the stronger mid-level flow traversing the northeastern
portion of the upper-level ridge. This may result in sufficient
shear for a few south-southeasterly moving supercells capable of
large hail and severe wind gusts.

...Ozarks into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A weak surface low will drift slowly southeastward along a frontal
boundary into the ArkLaTex on Wednesday.  Strong heating is expected
with temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. This deeply-mixed
and uncapped airmass will support scattered thunderstorm development
by mid-afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft is relatively weak (~20
knots). This will likely result in mostly unorganized storms with a
few multicell clusters. Despite the relatively weak shear, the
strong heating will support some damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 08/24/2026

$$