286
ACUS03 KWNS 110726
SWODY3
SPC AC 110724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of all hazards
appear possible Saturday afternoon and evening across portions of
the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. More isolated
severe weather appears possible across the upper Great Lakes, Ozark
Plateau, and southern Plains.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially from the upper MS Valley into northern
Rockies is forecast to amplify while pivoting east/southeast through
the upper Midwest and mid/lower MO Valleys. That system will be
attended by a belt of 50-60+ kt winds in the mid-levels, which are
expected to extend from the mid MO Valley into the Great Lakes
Saturday afternoon into night. At the surface, a cold front
initially from the upper Midwest to low pressure over KS Saturday
morning, will progress through the upper Great Lakes, mid/lower MO
Valleys, and central Plains during the forecast period.


...Upper Great Lakes into Central and Southern Plains...

The potential for early-day storms across portions of the mid MO
Valley into the Ozark Plateau increases uncertainty in the location
of afternoon/evening storms, as well as the distribution of
instability across the region. Latest ensemble guidance indicates
the highest likelihood for moderate to strong instability across
portions of the central and southern Plains with greater spread in
instability farther north across the upper Midwest into upper Great
Lakes.

Current thinking is that diurnally enhanced thunderstorms appear
most likely to the northeast of the KS surface low northeast along
the adjacent segment of the front with lesser confidence in storm
coverage with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes.
Deep-layer shear is expected to be sufficiently strong for organized
storm modes, including supercells from the central Plains into the
upper Great Lakes with decreasing amounts of vertical shear into the
southern Plains. Highest confidence in a more concentrated
severe-weather episode remains centered across the central Plains
into the lower MO Valley, where all hazards appear possible. Storms
may eventually grow upscale into one or multiple complexes Saturday
evening into night from the mid MS Valley through Ozark Plateau into
the southern Plains.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

$$