603
ACUS03 KWNS 072034
SWODY3
SPC AC 072033

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
HILLS INTO MID-MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL/EASTERN MAINE...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of the central and
northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes
region. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in Maine.

...Black Hills into parts of the lower Great Lakes...
Forecast uncertainty remains high. A moderate to strong low-level
jet is forecast to persist into early Sunday morning. This feature
will generally be focused into the Mid-Mississippi Valley region. It
is probable that some convection will be ongoing during the early
morning with some risk for large hail and possibly isolated damaging
winds. While the low-level jet will weaken to some extent into the
mid/late morning, modest 850 mb theta-e advection will continue and
may promote stronger development along the outflow from this early
activity. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kt of effective
shear on the western flank of the outflow would favor severe storms.
Similar to Saturday, additional storms could form as the low-level
jet intensifies Sunday night. Large hail would be the most likely
hazard as these storms would tend to be slightly elevated.

Farther west, storm development is much more uncertain. Warm
temperatures aloft will lead to capping within the Plains. A surface
low is forecast to develop which may provide local enhancement to
convergence, but the location and strength of this feature varies
model to model. Mid-level ascent will be subtle at best. The ECMWF
is the most aggressive with afternoon development. That solution
suggests development near the surface low/Black Hills with a
southeastward moving complex. While an increase in probabilities
would be needed in this scenario, confidence is not high.

...Maine...
Moderate mid-level winds will continue across much of the Northeast.
Ahead of a cold front, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will support
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear will be modest, but hodographs will be
long. A few marginal supercell structures are possible with an
accompanying risk for isolated wind damage and marginal hail.

..Wendt.. 08/07/2026

$$