671
ACUS03 KWNS 230729
SWODY3
SPC AC 230728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND VICINITY....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of
the central Plains, the Southeast, and the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.
A more focused region of severe wind gusts is possible across
portions of the central High Plains.

...Upper Midwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward from the
Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A surface low,
and associated cold front, will move relatively quickly
southeastward through the day. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast ahead
of this front which will result in moderate instability. Moderate
flow associated with the mid-level jet streak will provide ample
shear for storm organization. Storms will likely be ongoing at the
beginning of the period near the Canadian border which may result in
a somewhat messy storm mode through the day. However, farther south,
more isolated storm development is possible. Given storm motion
normal to the front and moderate mid-level flow, supercells will be
possible. Relatively weak mid-level lapse rates and warmer
temperatures aloft may limit the large hail threat somewhat.

...Central Plains...
A reservoir of strong instability is forecast across the central
Plains where low 70s dewpoints are expected on Tuesday
afternoon/evening. A weak mid-level shortwave trough (perhaps
enhanced by Day 2 convection) is consistently shown among guidance
which should move across this region during the afternoon/evening.
The combination of a strongly unstable warm sector and forcing from
this mid-level shortwave trough should result in scattered to
widespread storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Effective
shear around 30 to 35 knots should result in a combination of
multicells and supercells initially with one or more clusters
developing by evening as storms grow upscale. The most favorable
region for a greater coverage of severe wind gusts will likely exist
across northwest Kansas and vicinity where diurnal timing is favored
and storm mode transition is expected.

...Southeast...
Strong heating is expected along the Gulf Coast south of a frontal
zone. Shear will be very weak, but PWAT in excess of 2 inches and
the hot air mass should support water-loaded downdrafts capable of
isolated damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening
hours. A slightly greater coverage of storms and severe potential
may exist across MS/AL downstream of early morning elevated
convection forecast to develop across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

..Bentley.. 08/23/2026

$$