083
ACUS03 KWNS 150747
SWODY3
SPC AC 150746

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday. However,
isolated general thunderstorms are possible during the evening and
overnight hours from east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

...East TX to the Lower MS Valley...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. Strong mid/upper southwesterly
flow will overspread the region ahead of the trough. Surface
cyclogenesis is forecast to remain weak with this system. However a
modest low or surface trough, in tandem with a strong cold front,
will track across OK/TX to the Lower MS Valley during the
evening/overnight hours. Ahead of the front, southerly low-level
flow will allow for modifying Gulf moisture to return northward.
However, low 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain fairly close to
the coast from southeast TX into LA. 50s F dewpoints may reach as
far north as southern AR and central MS. Thermodynamic profiles
indicate a cool boundary layer, leading to a capped low-level
environment. Nevertheless, steepening midlevel lapse rates will
support modest elevated instability. While vertical shear will be
quite strong, poor thermodynamics will likely preclude much in the
way of severe thunderstorm potential, though isolated general
thunderstorms will be possible during the evening and overnight
hours.

..Leitman.. 01/15/2025

$$