604
ACUS03 KWNS 161932
SWODY3
SPC AC 161930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER
MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected
on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes,
and over a small part of the Mid Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper trough will move from the central Plains
across the mid to upper MS Valley, with a lead wave moving from MO
into Lower MI. A surface low is expected from eastern IA into lower
MI during the day, with a trough extending southwestward across IL,
MO, and OK. A very moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of
this main front with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints.

To the east, a weak surface trough is forecast to develop over the
Mid Atlantic, where strong heating will lead to an unstable air mass
beneath modest southwest flow aloft around western Atlantic high.

...MI southwestward into OK...
Scattered storms may be ongoing Wednesday morning from IA into MO
and northeast OK, with remnant MCS activity. It appears the greatest
ascent will move across northern areas coincident with the shortwave
trough, from northern IL into lower MI. Here, shear profiles will
likely support supercells, including hail and perhaps tornado
threat.

Farther south, stronger instability and PWAT will exist along the
front but with weaker shear. Substantial convection is expected with
areas of damaging winds likely. Some of these storms may move south
to southwest due to propagation. Given steep midlevel lapse rates,
sporadic hail may occur as well.

...Eastern PA and MD...NJ...DE...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop around the DelMarVa and
into eastern PA and NJ, with primarily tall/moist CAPE profiles as
seen on forecast soundings. Sufficient surface convergence is likely
to initiate scattered storms during the afternoon from eastern PA
into eastern MD, moving across NJ and DE by late afternoon/early
evening. Given the favorable time of day, high PWAT and modest
westerly flow aloft, some of these storms may produce locally
damaging gusts, and perhaps small to marginal hail.

..Jewell.. 06/16/2025

$$