184
ACUS03 KWNS 271902
SWODY3
SPC AC 271901

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas
into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern
High Plains on Friday.

...Portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley...

An upper trough will persist over the eastern  U.S. with modest
northwesterly flow aloft overspreading much of the Plains to the MS
Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southwest
TX to the ArkLaTex, then east/southeast toward the central Gulf
Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across
TX into the Lower MS Valley. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to
remain weak, but the rich boundary layer moisture and strong heating
will allow MLCAPE reaching 1500-2500 J/kg, mainly across southeast
TX into LA. Convection is likely to be ongoing during the morning in
the form of a decaying/remnant MCS from the Day 2/Thursday period
from parts of AR/LA into MS/AL. New development/re-intensification
may occur during the afternoon as the surface front/outflow develops
southward into the moderately unstable/very moist airmass. Locally
strong/damaging wind gusts could occur with this activity.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

Southeasterly surface winds in the post-frontal upslope flow regime
will bring upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints into western NE,
southwest through eastern CO/NM along a surface trough. Strong
daytime heating and midlevel lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km will foster
MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Vertically veering wind profiles
will support effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Isolated
thunderstorms could occasionally become strong, producing gusty
winds and marginally severe hail.

..Leitman.. 08/27/2025

$$