952
ACUS03 KWNS 140715
SWODY3
SPC AC 140714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening from parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado
into Illinois and Wisconsin.

...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity...

A shortwave upper trough and likely MCV from Day 2/Tuesday
convection will move across MN/WI and the Great Lakes on Wednesday.
Another upper trough over the northern Rockies will shift east
across the northern/central Plains. These two features will result
in enhanced westerly flow atop a moist and moderate to strongly
unstable boundary layer from the central High Plains toward the
Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front/composite outflow (related to
Day 2/Tuesday storms) will percolate southeast across the Upper
Midwest and central Plains.

Uncertainty exists regarding location of key surface
boundaries/MCVs, as these features will be tied to convective
evolution in the Day 2/Tuesday period. Nevertheless, a very moist
and unstable airmass and favorable vertical shear should support
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the surface front.
Additional strong storms are possible in the post-frontal upslope
flow regime across parts of eastern WY/CO. As the location of key
features become more certain in the coming couple of days, the
outlook area may shift and/or upgrades may become necessary.

..Leitman.. 07/14/2025

$$