717
ACUS03 KWNS 121856
SWODY3
SPC AC 121856

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Friday
through Friday night.

...Discussion...
As blocking mid/upper ridging remains centered offshore of
southeastern Greenland, models indicate that a broad cyclonic regime
will be maintained to its southwest, centered near the Canadian
Maritimes.  Some amplification of large-scale troughing extending
southward offshore of the remainder of the North American Atlantic
coast is forecast, downstream of a significant mid-level trough and
embedded cyclone migrating northeast and east of the Canadian
Prairies, on the leading edge of a more progressive regime.

Upstream, ridging ahead of another short wave trough appears likely
to spread across and inland of the British Columbia/adjacent Pacific
Northwest coast, to the north of an increasingly cut-off low
centered offshore of the central/southern California coast.

...Southern California...
Models indicate that the modifying mid-level cold core (including
coldest 500 mb temperatures warming above -24 C) will generally
remain offshore through this period, tending to pivot away from
central coastal areas while perhaps slowly toward southern coastal
areas late Friday night.  While a corridor of continued
low/mid-level moistening along a slow moving, occluded frontal zone
may compensate and contribute to layers of weak conditional
instability inland of southern California coastal into the southern
Sierra Nevada/Mojave Desert vicinity, 10 percent or greater
probabilities for thunderstorms appear generally focused offshore.
Forcing for ascent associated with a weak developing frontal wave
late Friday night might provide support for the best potential for
thunderstorm development closest to coastal areas.

..Kerr.. 11/12/2025

$$