Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
083 ACUS03 KWNS 040732 SWODY3 SPC AC 040731 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The probability of severe thunderstorms is currently low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday, before progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. At the same time, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary is expected progress eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast while the southern/western portion only makes modest southerly progression across the Southeast and TX. Much of the better low-level moisture and greater buoyancy will exist from the Southeast into TX, displaced south/west of the stronger mid-level flow and greater vertical shear. This will likely limit the organized thunderstorm potential, with a mostly pulse/multicellular storm mode anticipated. A few damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms along the front farther north/east across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic, but limited buoyancy should keep coverage low. ..Mosier.. 06/04/2024 $$