411
ACUS03 KWNS 261932
SWODY3
SPC AC 261931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday
night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to shift eastward
and weaken under the influence of a deepening shortwave trough over
the Rockies and High Plains Friday. As the trough to the west
deepens, stronger westerly flow will overspread the Plains states
deepening a lee cyclone across portions of eastern CO and western
KS. A strong cold front, attendant to the surface low, will sweep
southeastward, supporting isolated thunderstorms over the southern
Plains and Ozarks into early Saturday.

...Central TX into southeastern OK...
As the surface low over the southern High Plains deepens, southerly
winds will increase supporting low-level moisture advection on the
western flank of the surface high into portions of TX and southern
OK late Friday. With surface temperatures remaining relatively cool
in the wake of the prior frontal passage, most forecast soundings
show weak buoyancy developing above a surface stable layer at the
apex of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As the upper trough
moves overhead and the surface cold front approaches from the
northwest, broad ascent will support isolated thunderstorms from
central and western North TX into central/eastern OK and the western
Ozarks late Friday night into early Saturday morning. While buoyancy
is expected to remain fairly limited (~500 J/kg MUCAPE), strong flow
aloft could support occasional stronger elevated storms with the
potential for small hail. This is most likely farther south across
TX where buoyancy would be stronger, though confidence in a
sustained severe risk is low.

..Lyons.. 11/26/2025

$$