967
ACUS03 KWNS 051919
SWODY3
SPC AC 051918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Tuesday.
However, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out from northeast Ohio
into western New York from late afternoon through evening.

...Synopsis...
Southern portions of an upper trough will sweep east across the
Great Lakes during the day and into the Northeast overnight, with
relatively weak flow into the Plains with an upper ridge. A cold
front will progress toward the lower Great Lakes and into the OH
Valley late, accelerating across New England into Wednesday morning.

Ahead of the front, dewpoints in the 60s F and pockets of heating
will lead to several hundred J/kg MUCAPE into parts of New York and
Pennsylvania, where large-scale ascent will be increasing late in
the day. Areas of early precipitation will be possible ahead of the
cold front during the day, which may limit destabilization. However,
a diurnal increase in activity is likely as ascent is maximized,
from northeast OH into northern PA and much of upstate NY.

Forecast soundings from various models indicate uncertainty in the
degree of destabilization and antecedent precipitation. In addition,
much of the activity will occur during the evening after peak
heating. Given these uncertainties, will maintain general
thunderstorms for the area. However, given increasing deep-layer
shear and lift, a conditional risk of at least isolated severe gusts
cannot be ruled out should this setup trend in a more unstable
direction.

..Jewell.. 10/05/2025

$$