188
ACUS03 KWNS 310730
SWODY3
SPC AC 310729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong
wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and
central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast.

...High Plains...
At mid-levels, a low and an associated shortwave trough will move
slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern High
Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, southeasterly mid-level flow
will be in place over the top of a moist airmass in the northern
Plains. Surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to lower 60s F will
contribute the development of moderate instability across much of
the moist sector by afternoon. Model forecasts focus a zone of
maximized low-level convergence in the afternoon, ahead of a cold
front moving through the western Dakotas. Near this convergence
zone, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
east-northeastward into the warm sector during the late afternoon
and early evening.

Ahead of the front, forecast soundings near Bismarck in the late
afternoon have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 35
knots. This will support a potential for supercells with large hail.
In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to become very steep in
the late afternoon, which will coincide with relatively large
temperature-dewpoint spreads. This will be favorable for severe wind
gusts. The severe threat is expected to continue into the early to
mid evening as multiple storms move eastward into the central
Dakotas.

Further south into parts of the southern and central High Plains, a
moist and unstable airmass will be in place beneath considerably
weaker mid-level flow. In most areas, large-scale ascent will remain
limited. However, a few storms could develop along zones of
maximized low-level convergence. These storms will likely have
access to moderate instability and enough deep-layer shear for an
isolated severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible.

...Eastern Gulf Coast...
An upper-level trough will move south-southeastward across the
southern U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast
to advance southward across southern Alabama and southern Georgia
during the day. South of the front, moderate instability is expected
to develop as surface temperatures warm. Steepening low-level lapse
rates in the afternoon should support an isolated wind-damage threat
with storms that form near and ahead of the front.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

$$