061
ACUS03 KWNS 200804
SWODY3
SPC AC 200803

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the
southern Plains and Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential
appears low.

...Synopsis...

An upper low and attendant trough will overspread the Southwest on
Saturday while shortwave upper ridging develops over the
southern/central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will develop
southeast across the TX coast and much of the Southeast U.S.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front amid a
modestly unstable and moist boundary layer. Severe storms are not
expected given limited instability and weak vertical shear.
Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Southwest where cold temperatures aloft will support meager but
sufficient MUCAPE.

Model spread increases late in the period regarding the ejection of
the Southwest upper trough. Some guidance suggests a low-level jet
will strengthen across the southern High Plains vicinity as the
upper trough approaches the vicinity toward Sunday morning.
Increasing midlevel moisture within deep-layer southwesterly flow,
and modestly steepening midlevel lapse rates could generate enough
elevated instability for isolated thunderstorm development across
the southern High Plains overnight, though severe storms are not
expected.

..Leitman.. 11/20/2025

$$