504
ACUS03 KWNS 170645
SWODY3
SPC AC 170644

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and
strong wind gusts from eastern Colorado into parts of Nebraska
Wednesday afternoon/evening.

...Central Plains...

Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will persist over the region on
Wednesday. In the wake of a prior cold frontal passage, easterly
low-level winds will maintain modest boundary layer moisture across
the High Plains, with somewhat deeper moisture further east into
central NE. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will overspread
the region, and a corridor of moderate to strong instability is
forecast. Vertically veering wind profiles with 40+ kt effective
shear magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs are evident in
forecast soundings. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop within the low-level warm advection/upslope flow
regime during the afternoon into the evening. Isolated large hail
and strong outflow winds will be possible.

...Mid-South vicinity...

An MCV may be located over KS Wednesday morning. This feature will
migrate eastward as a surface boundary sags southward across parts
of the Ozark Plateau into the Lower OH Valley. A corridor of rich
boundary layer moisture will be in place near the surface boundary,
promoting a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability.
However, forecast soundings indicated capping may rapidly increase
downstream of the Ozarks into southeast MO and western TN/KY. It is
possible that a narrow corridor of severe potential could develop
somewhere from the Ozarks into the Mid-South as the MCV and surface
boundary impinge on the area. However, confidence is low, precluding
severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/17/2026

$$