952
ACUS03 KWNS 041850
SWODY3
SPC AC 041848

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, a ridge will build across the Plains into the Upper
Midwest with an amplifying trough across the Northeast/eastern Great
Lakes and another trough centered over the Northwest. At the
surface, a weak surface low will be present across the Northeast
with a stronger surface low in the lee of the northern Rockies.

...Eastern Montana and western North Dakota...
As lee troughing intensifies on Saturday, low-level moisture will
advect northwestward into western North Dakota and eastern Montana.
This will result in strong to very strong instability by mid to late
afternoon. As the broader trough shifts east and height falls
overspread the Plains, expect storms to develop along the lee
trough/dryline in eastern Montana and move northeastward. As
mid-level flow strengthens through the day, shear will strengthen
and should support supercell storm mode. Large hail should be the
primary threat, but given relatively steep lapse rates across the
region, some severe wind threat will also exist.

...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley...
A cold front will extend from the surface low in southern Quebec/New
England into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning. Moisture will
increase ahead of this front from west to east with increasing
instability, especially across Indiana and into western
Pennslylvania. Within this same zone, moderate mid-level flow will
overspread the region with moderate deep-layer shear forecast.
Storms are expected to develop along the front by mid afternoon and
move south-southeastward into the evening. Farther northeast,
dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 60s which should limit
instability somewhat which should support lesser storm
coverage/intensity along the font.

..Bentley.. 06/04/2026

$$