123
ACUS03 KWNS 221919
SWODY3
SPC AC 221918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern
Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Central High Plains...

Northwesterly mid/upper flow will be in place across the High Plains
on Sunday on the back side of the large-scale upper trough over the
eastern U.S. A midlevel shortwave impulse is forecast to move across
the central Rockies during the afternoon/evening. At the same time,
southerly low-level flow will maintain a narrow corridor of modest
boundary layer moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F) across parts of
eastern CO/western KS. Steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE values within this corridor. As a result,
thunderstorms are likely to develop over higher terrain during the
afternoon and could spread southeast into the moist axis.

Some uncertainty exists with regards to early-day convection and
cloud cover. Afternoon temperatures may remain rather cool and could
hamper stronger destabilization. However, if storms can develop and
become sustained off the higher terrain, vertical shear will be
sufficient for organized cells. Elongated forecast hodographs and
cool 500 mb temperatures indicate hail could occur with any stronger
sustained cells. If stronger heating/boundary layer mixing can
occur, gusty winds also may accompany this activity.

..Leitman.. 08/22/2025

$$