960
ACUS03 KWNS 220653
SWODY3
SPC AC 220652

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...TN/OH Valley into the Central Appalachians...

An upper trough will shift east across the central U.S. on Tuesday,
however there is uncertainty in the exact evolution/timing of this
feature among various forecast guidance. Nevertheless, modestly
enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough will
overspread portions of the OH/TN Valleys and central Appalachian
vicinity. A moist airmass will be in place, characterized by 60s F
dewpoints. Ongoing precipitation is possible Tuesday morning,
associated with a lead shortwave impulse/convectively enhanced
vorticity max over the OH Valley. As a result, the degree of daytime
destabilization across the warm sector is uncertain. Some severe
thunderstorm potential may develop from KY/TN toward the central
Appalachians vicinity given modestly enhanced mid/upper level flow
overspreading the moist warm sector. However, given large
uncertainty in the evolution/timing of the central U.S. upper trough
and concerns over a recovering/destabilizing warm sector, will hold
off on introducing severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 09/22/2024

$$