169
ACUS03 KWNS 240730
SWODY3
SPC AC 240729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF PA
INTO NORTHERN NJ AND SOUTHEAST NY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible over parts of the Northeast
and northern Mid Atlantic on Wednesday.

...Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast/Mid Atlantic...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the
upper Midwest toward the lower Great Lakes and Northeast on
Wednesday. Rather moist low-level westerly flow will support
potential for moderate diurnal destabilization from OH into parts of
the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic. Scattered thunderstorm
development will be possible Wednesday afternoon along/ahead of a
cold front across parts of OH/PA and southern NY, which will spread
eastward into the evening.

Strengthening flow in the 700-500 mb layer will support sufficient
effective shear for storm organization, with potential for a few
organized clusters and perhaps a couple of supercells. Damaging wind
and perhaps isolated hail will be possible, along with some
potential for a brief tornado if a supercell can be sustained. A
Slight Risk has been added for parts of PA into southeast NY and
northern NJ, where the most favorable overlap of instability, storm
coverage, and strengthening low/midlevel flow is currently
anticipated.

Diurnal storm coverage becomes increasingly uncertain with southward
extent, but at least an isolated severe threat could extend into
parts of the Mid Atlantic during the late afternoon and evening.

...Lower Ohio Valley into the Ozarks vicinity...
Uncertainty regarding storm potential and evolution is quite high
from the lower Ohio Valley vicinity into the Ozarks. There is some
potential for an MCS (or its remnant) to be ongoing at the start of
the period. An outflow-influenced front will be draped somewhere
across the region through the day, to the south of a reinforcing
cold front that will move southward from the upper Midwest.
Northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will be in place across the
region, though the strength of the flow and any embedded shortwave
troughs may also be influenced by antecedent convection and
potential development of any MCVs.

Some redevelopment of storms will be possible near the front and any
remaining outflow boundaries. The northwesterly flow regime may
provide sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, with
one or more clusters possible with a threat of damaging wind and
perhaps some hail.

...Southeast WY/northeast CO into central High Plains...
Moist low-level southeasterly flow is expected on Wednesday from
eastern CO/WY into the NE Panhandle, in the wake of a cold frontal
passage. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the
afternoon within this regime. While the region will initially be
under the influence of an upper-level ridge over the southern
Rockies, guidance suggests potential for a low-amplitude shortwave
trough to crest the ridge from WY into western NY. This will support
potential for at least isolated thunderstorm development.

Midlevel flow may remain rather modest, but sufficient veering with
height will support sufficient effective shear for storm
organization, including some supercell potential with a threat of
large hail and localized severe gusts. A strengthening nocturnal
low-level jet could support some upscale growth, which could spread
at least isolated severe-gust potential into parts of southwest NE
and western KS.

..Dean.. 06/24/2024

$$