185
ACUS03 KWNS 091934
SWODY3
SPC AC 091933

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ILLINOIS TO
THE APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible on Tuesday
over parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Isolated
severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the
central and northern Plains into the Midwest.

...From IL into western VA/NC...
Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday, though
timing and position of the greatest threat corridor is uncertain.
Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing early on Tuesday across parts
of the OH Valley region, and strong gusts cannot be ruled out at
that time. Daytime heating and a weak surface trough may aid
re-development across the Appalachians and into VA/NC, with
deep-layer mean winds supporting mobile clusters of storms producing
damaging gusts.

Late afternoon and evening development should occur farther west as
west/southwest boundary layer winds maintain a warm and unstable air
mass into IL/IN/OH. The greatest threat of a damaging wind corridor
appears to be in these areas, with MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg, and
potentially 40-50 kt deep-layer shear. Depending on how mesoscale
factors resolve, supercells will be possible, but the primary risk
is expected to be potentially widespread damaging winds.
Predictability is currently low, but categorical risk upgrades
cannot be ruled out in later outlooks.

...Northern Plains...
Storms are expected to develop late in the day over the western
Dakotas near a surface trough over the High Plains. Southeasterly
surface winds and 60s F dewpoints will yield moderate instability,
and favorable 40-50 kt deep layer shear. The elongated mid to upper
hodographs should aid supercell and hail potential, with bowing
structures producing damaging wind during the evening.

...AZ...
An easterly flow regime will persist on Tuesday, with scattered
afternoon storms over the higher terrain moving generally westward.
Locally damaging gusts may occur with the stronger outflows.

..Jewell.. 08/09/2026

$$