803
ACUS03 KWNS 281931
SWODY3
SPC AC 281930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic occurrences of mainly damaging wind appear possible
Thursday afternoon and night across parts of the northern and
central Plains.

...Discussion...
On Thursday, the pattern will feature an upper trough over the East
with filling low over the Northeast, and an upper high from the
Southwest into the Four Corners states. In between, a modest
northwest flow regime will exist over much of the Plains, with
embedded disturbances forecast over the northern and central Plains.

During the afternoon, a surface trough will develop from eastern MT
into the OK/TX Panhandles, where strong heating will occur. A
pre-frontal trough will also develop from SD into MN ahead of a cold
front trailing southwestward out of Ontario. This area may be
favorable timed with a weak wave moving around the upper ridge, and
storms that form within the surface trough will be capable of
sporadic severe hail or wind given 2000+ MUCAPE and deep-layer shear
around 30 kt. Possible early day thunderstorms complicate the
forecast setup, but a Slight Risk may eventually be added over the
northern Plains as predictability increases.

..Jewell.. 07/28/2026

$$