419
ACUS03 KWNS 160831
SWODY3
SPC AC 160830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys during the day on Tuesday, and also possible across parts of
the southern Plains, mainly during the evening and overnight. A few
strong storms are possible, but severe potential appears relatively
low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low and attendant deep trough are forecast to move
slowly eastward across the Southwest on Tuesday. Farther east, a
low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move quickly
east-southeastward from the Midwest toward the Mid Atlantic. A
surface low initially over the east-central Plains is forecast to
move eastward and weaken, as a trailing cold front stalls over parts
of the Ozarks and southern Plains, before returning northward as a
warm front late in the period.

...Southern Plains into parts of the OH/TN Valleys...
Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across
parts of the mid MS and OH Valleys, which will tend to spread
eastward toward the TN Valley and parts of the Appalachians.
Uncertainties regarding the magnitude of elevated buoyancy will
continue into early D3/Tuesday from D2/Monday, but a few strong
storms capable of small to near-severe hail cannot be ruled out
before the low-level warm-advection regime begins to weaken and
convection moves into a more stable environment.

Later in the day into Tuesday night, seasonably rich boundary-layer
moisture will stream northward into a larger portion of OK and west
TX, as the initial weak surface boundary effectively becomes a warm
front. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will be
conditionally supportive of organized convection, though most
guidance currently suggests that stronger large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching trough across the Southwest will
remain west of the expanding buoyancy reservoir through the end of
the period.

Very isolated storm development cannot be ruled out near the front
during the afternoon and evening, though any such development may
struggle to intensify in the absence of stronger forcing. A somewhat
greater chance for robust (though likely somewhat elevated) storm
development may evolve late in the period across parts of west TX
into southwest OK, in response to a modestly strengthening low-level
jet. The 16/00Z GFS/RRFS are currently the most aggressive regarding
storm development prior to 12Z Wednesday morning, but if other
guidance trends in that direction, then severe probabilities may
eventually be needed.

..Dean.. 11/16/2025

$$