344
ACUS03 KWNS 210826
SWODY3
SPC AC 210825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS TO THE RIO GRANDE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts will be the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low across the Southwest will become an open wave
as it moves into the Plains on Sunday. Weak surface troughing is
forecast to develop across the High Plains during the day.
Strengthening southerly flow east of this surface trough will bring
rich moisture northward across central Texas as a warm front lifts
northward.

...Central Texas to the Rio Grande...
Strengthening low-level flow will continue to destabilize the
boundary layer through the day as a warm front lifts north. As
isentropic ascent increases during the afternoon/evening, widespread
thunderstorm activity is anticipated along the warm front and also
along the cold front/dryline. Moderate instability and strong shear
will support the potential for mostly elevated supercells capable of
isolated large hail. As storms grow upscale, the threat for damaging
wind gusts will increase during the late evening and into the
overnight period. Initially, expect convection to be elevated, but
it may eventually become more surface based as storms advance into
the warm sector. Low-level lapse rates will be very weak (3-4 C/km)
which should keep any tornado threat isolated. However, given the
strong low-level shear, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Bentley.. 11/21/2025

$$