977
ACUS03 KWNS 171921
SWODY3
SPC AC 171921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday
from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.

...Parts of New England to the Southeast...
A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east
from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday.
Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are
forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of
this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of
the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually
strengthen from south to north with increasing storm
organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a
potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from
eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont.
While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north,
strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and
organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary
hazard.

...Southwest Montana...
Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday
afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across
the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based
thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given
the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the
region.

...Upper Midwest...
A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse
northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some
strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts
southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability
within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where
isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts
would be the primary threat.

...Northern Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the
northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along
the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep
convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a
nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional
strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern
Plains Thursday night.

..Bentley.. 06/17/2025

$$