610
ACUS03 KWNS 181918
SWODY3
SPC AC 181917

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the Mid-Atlantic will lift northeast across New
England on Monday. Further west, another upper trough over the
Rockies will develop east across the Plains to the MS Valley.
Surface high pressure will be centered over the Southeast behind a
prior cold frontal passage. Surface cyclogenesis is forecast across
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity with the approach of the
upper trough. This will result in some increased south/southwesterly
low-level flow ahead of a surface cold front sweeping southeast
across the Plains to the Upper Midwest, but Gulf moisture return
will remain scant. This will preclude much destabilization, but
cooling aloft may be sufficient for isolated lightning flashes
across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

Additional thunderstorms are possible across New England as a
surface low occludes/weakens and lifts northeast into Quebec.
Low-topped convection within the warm conveyor ahead of a surface
front may produce isolated lightning flashes through the daytime.
The surface front will arc southwest offshore from the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast into northern/central FL. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across the southern FL Peninsula amid
moist/weakly unstable boundary-layer. Weak vertical shear and drying
aloft will preclude severe potential.

..Leitman.. 10/18/2025

$$