340
ACUS03 KWNS 031911
SWODY3
SPC AC 031910

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
central Plains on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front will remain stationary across the Plains
states, as a pronounced mid-level impulse over the Upper MS Valley
ejects into Ontario, and broader upper troughing remains in place
over the central U.S. Modest low-level moisture will continue to
advect north-northwestward as lee troughing persist over the central
and southern Plains. By late afternoon, subtle lifting along the
cold front, along with peak diurnal heating, should support
scattered thunderstorm development over the central Plains. Adequate
buoyancy and shear will be in place to support an isolated severe
threat.

...Central Plains...
The stationary surface cold front will be positioned along a line
roughly from central NE to the western TX Panhandle somewhere in the
18-00Z time frame. By afternoon peak heating, surface temperatures
will exceed 80 F amid upper 50s to perhaps 60 F dewpoints, yielding
between 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given somewhat warm temperatures aloft
and meager moisture return, thunderstorm development will be
dependent on surface heating and any subtle convergence along the
cold front. Nonetheless, the latest 12Z 3-km NAM, ECMWF, and GFS
runs all depict convective initiation along the cold front from
south-central NE to the OK/TX Panhandles by Sunday evening. By this
time, a southeasterly LLJ will be in place, beneath 700-500 mb flow
that quickly veers to west-southwesterly, which will support
enlarged, curved hodographs. Despite poor buoyancy and weak forcing
for ascent, a few multicells or even a transient supercell or two
may develop, capable of an instance or two of marginally severe
hail/wind or a brief tornado.

..Squitieri.. 10/03/2025

$$