222
ACUS03 KWNS 301920
SWODY3
SPC AC 301919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Friday.

...Discussion...

A vigorous, polar-branch trough progressing through the Great Lakes
and Northeast will become disconnected from a positively tilted,
lower-latitude trough over the southern Plains. At the surface, a
cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes into the southern
Plains Friday morning will advance south through the Mid-Atlantic
and the OH and TN Valleys toward the Gulf Coast states.

A fairly expansive area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
be ongoing at 12Z Friday along and ahead of the front from the OH
Valley into the southern Plains. Lingering precipitation and
associated cloud cover are expected to limit daytime heating and
resultant air mass destabilization at many locations along the
boundary into the afternoon. Latest model guidance indicates the
segment of the front from southern MO and northern AR to along the
OH River will coincide with 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear with the
vector orientation largely paralleling the boundary. As such, the
risk for a strong storm or two capable of gusty winds could
materialize in those areas Friday afternoon and evening given
sufficient destabilization for surface-based storms. The overall
severe weather threat still appears too low to warrant inclusion of
Marginal-Risk probabilities.

..Mead.. 09/30/2026

$$