900
ACUS03 KWNS 150731
SWODY3
SPC AC 150730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears
negligible for Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that mid-level ridging will remain prominent across much
of the central and southern Great Plains, middle and lower
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through this period. A wave migrating
on its southeastern periphery may gradually overspread portions of
the south Atlantic Seaboard by late Thursday night.  To its
northwest, a cut-off low, initially inland of the northern
California coast, may elongate north-northeastward through portions
of the northern Intermountain Region and Great Basin.

Within the stronger westerlies, consolidating large-scale mid-level
troughing is forecast to dig through northern Ontario, Quebec and
adjacent portions of the Northeast.  It appears that this will be
accompanied by a developing area of surface low pressure, trailed by
a reinforcing cool intrusion across the upper Great Lakes region and
adjacent portions of the Upper Midwest.  A preceding front may
progress southeastward across the northern Mid Atlantic and upper
into middle Ohio Valley, perhaps overtaking portions of an initially
quasi-stationary boundary across the lower Ohio through lower/middle
Missouri Valley vicinity.

Guidance suggests that seasonably high boundary-layer moisture
content along the southern-most baroclinic zone will once again
contribute to sizable CAPE with insolation Thursday.  However,
generally warm thermodynamic profiles and weak deep-layer mean
flow/shear probably will continue to inhibit the risk for organized
severe thunderstorm activity.

If forcing for ascent, associated with a subtle perturbation
migrating through the northern periphery of the ridge, can support a
sufficiently upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, then the
environment might be conducive to the evolution of a meso-beta scale
cyclonic circulation with strengthening rear inflow and potential to
produce strong to severe surface gusts.  While the potential for
this remains uncertain at the present time, trends will continue to
be monitored in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 09/15/2026

$$