405
ACUS03 KWNS 140726
SWODY3
SPC AC 140725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible (i.e, less than
5 percent probabilities) across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday
night.

...Discussion...
It appears that an initially digging short wave trough along the
Pacific coast will contribute to the evolution of a mid/upper low
centered across northern California by or shortly after the
beginning of this period.  There it is forecast to generally remain,
cut off from the stronger westerlies confined to the northern
mid-latitudes.

A couple of notable short wave perturbations will remain progressive
within a stronger confluent mid/upper regime across the eastern
Canadian Provinces through northern mid-latitude Atlantic, including
one forecast to translate east of Newfoundland and Labrador and
another digging through northern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario.

In lower latitudes, mid-level ridging likely will remain prominent
across much of the central and southern Great Plains through
northern Mid Atlantic.  More uncertainty exists concerning an
easterly wave approaching the Florida Peninsula and a possible
mid-level perturbation suppressing the ridging across parts of the
lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity.

Based on current model output, a remnant surface frontal zone across
the Ohio into lower Missouri Valleys will remain a focus for higher
boundary layer moisture content and the development of moderate CAPE
with insolation.  However, there is spread concerning the degree to
which this front remains quasi-stationary, or begins to return
northward toward at least a bit more of a favorably sheared regime
for organized convection.  Given this uncertainty, and the otherwise
marginal/isolated nature of the anticipated severe weather
potential, severe probabilities for Wednesday through Wednesday
night appear less than 5 percent at this time.

..Kerr.. 09/14/2026

$$