083
ACUS03 KWNS 311848
SWODY3
SPC AC 311847

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated occurrences of mainly damaging winds are possible from the
Lower Great Lakes into the Carolinas and parts of Georgia Sunday
afternoon and evening. A more conditional severe risk exists across
parts of North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota late Sunday
afternoon into night.

...Upper Ohio Valley to Southeast...

The base of an upper trough initially extending from the Ohio Valley
to the Gulf Coast will stall over the OH/TN Valley vicinity on
Sunday. Meanwhile, the northern portion of the upper trough will
lift northeast across the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. This will
result in generally weakening midlevel south/southwesterly flow from
GA into the Lower Great Lakes. Nevertheless, a very moist
boundary-layer will reside across the region ahead of a weak surface
front. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s will support
generally 500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong destabilization will be
limited by early day/ongoing convection, cloud cover and poor lapse
rates. Nevertheless, sufficient vertical shear will support
transient organized cells/clusters, particularly where any pockets
of strong heating occurs. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
hazards with thunderstorms through early evening.

...North Dakota...

A very conditional environment for severe storm development will
exist across central/eastern ND and vicinity on Sunday. An amplified
upper ridge over the region will result in warm midlevel
temperatures and capping through the period. As an upper shortwave
trough tracks across the northern Rockies and into the Canadian
Prairies, height falls will overspread the northern Plains beginning
around 00z. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will shift east across
the northern High Plains and western ND during the afternoon, before
stalling across central ND into western SD overnight. While
surface-based convection seems unlikely, warm advection ahead of the
surface front could result in sporadic elevated convection. Steep
midlevel lapse rates and moderate elevated instability amid
increasing westerly flow aloft could support a risk for hail. Storm
development is uncertain, but will maintain the conditional Marginal
(level 1 of 5) risk for now.

..Leitman.. 07/31/2026

$$