156
ACUS03 KWNS 301936
SWODY3
SPC AC 301934

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are anticipated from parts of central New Mexico
into parts of western Texas late Sunday into Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughs within the Great Basin and near the Baja Peninsula
will begin to phase into a broader Southwest trough on Sunday. A
surface low will deepen in the eastern Great Basin and evolve
eastward into central High Plains by Monday morning. A cold front
will move through New Mexico.

...New Mexico...
Cloud cover will be on the increase ahead of the upper level system.
This will lead to some areas not receiving very much surface
heating. The greatest surface heating will likely occur in eastern
New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Low-level moisture will be
maintained by southerly low-level flow. 40s to low 50s F dewpoints
can be expected in much of central New Mexico with low 60s F
possible farther south/east towards the southern High Plains. The
presence of a strong mid-level jet will promote strong wind shear
across the region. While supercells will be possible, linear forcing
from the front may keep the storm mode more linear in nature.
Despite limited buoyancy and the late timing of the activity, the
strong wind fields will support a threat for convectively enhanced
severe wind gusts. Marginally severe hail may also occur conditional
on a supercell storm mode.

..Wendt.. 10/30/2026

$$