299
ACUS03 KWNS 140638
SWODY3
SPC AC 140637

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley
to the Mid-Atlantic, and across the High Plains Sunday afternoon and
evening.

...Mid-MS Valley to Mid-Atlantic...

An upper trough will modestly deepen over the Great Lakes and
Northeast on Sunday, resulting in weak mid/upper height falls.
Moderate westerly flow aloft will overspread a seasonally moist
airmass as a surface front sags southward across the Midwest and the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions through the period. At least a couple
MCVs may be located within this broader region of enhanced westerly
flow from the Mid-MS Valley to the Northeast. These features, along
with the southward-moving surface front will be a focus for
scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening.
While details remain uncertain, the overall kinematic and
thermodynamic parameter space will support strong to severe storms,
mainly capable of damaging wind gusts.

..High Plains...

Moist upslope flow will once again support isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development across the High Plains on Sunday. Upper 50s
to low 60s F dewpoints will result in moderate destabilization. Flow
through around 500 mb will remain weak, but vertically veering wind
profiles, and westerlies increasing with height above 500 mb will
support effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt and
elongated/straight hodographs are evident in forecast soundings.
Isolated strong to severe storms mainly capable of producing large
hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 08/14/2026

$$