524
ACUS03 KWNS 180708
SWODY3
SPC AC 180707

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the
Northeast on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on
Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough
over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a
surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected
upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing
with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely.

Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak
shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are
forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps
small hail with the stronger cores.

...Elsewhere...
An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during
the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated
overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial
height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level
jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe
potential.

..Jewell.. 06/18/2024

$$