191
ACUS03 KWNS 250732
SWODY3
SPC AC 250732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging winds are
forecast over parts of the northern Plains late on Friday. Sporadic
damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the Mid Atlantic and
Southeast.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move from MT into the northern
Plains, with 50 kt midlevel flow moving across MD and northern MN.
Cooling aloft will also overspread the area, steepening lapse rates.
Meanwhile, minor height rises will occur over the central and
southern Plains, while a weak midlevel low persists over the
Southeast.

At the surface, robust low-level moisture will remain in place from
the Plains to the East Coast. Southerly winds increasing ahead of
the northern Plains wave will aid northward moisture advection east
of a surface trough, which will extend from the central Dakotas into
western NE/KS by late afternoon. During the day, a warm front will
lift across the eastern Dakotas and parts of MN, but cool air should
remain over much of the upper Great Lakes area with weak high
pressure.

...Northern Plains...
Low pressure will deepen from the Dakotas southward toward the
central High Plains, with a wind shift/boundary pushing east into
across the western Dakotas during the afternoon. A plume of steep
low-level lapse rates will develop and nose into central SD, while
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F spread into the area as well.
The result will be moderate to strong instability by late afternoon
and evening.

Storms are expected to form within the heated surface trough where
the cap will be zero by late in the day. The strongest storms
capable of significant hail and locally damaging gusts should occur
across the Dakotas through evening, with isolated cells extending
southward into western NE/KS and perhaps far eastern CO. In
addition, elevated severe storms may persist into northwest MN as
the low-level jet increases during the evening, with large hail
potential.

....Southeast into the Mid Atlantic...
Scattered daytime storms will again occur generally east of the MS
River, with focus from the Mid Atlantic across the
Carolinas/Appalachians/Gulf Coast states. Instability will likely
not be as strong as previous days due to several days of overturning
of the air mass, however, pockets of stronger instability will favor
locally damaging gusts from microbursts.

..Jewell.. 06/25/2025

$$