348
ACUS03 KWNS 020725
SWODY3
SPC AC 020724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to potentially severe gusts may accompany a band of
thunderstorms across parts of the central Appalachians on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow will overspread much of the central and eastern
CONUS on Thursday. Through the period, a mid-level impulse will
pivot around the broader cyclonic flow into Quebec while an even
more potent embedded mid-level trough rapidly amplifies over the
Midwest. As a result, a surface cold front will rapidly surge
eastward over the Appalachians and impinge on the East Coast, where
seasonal low-level moisture will be in place to support an extensive
band of thunderstorms. Given overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind
shear, a few storms may be strong to severe.

...Central Appalachians...
The cold front will surge to the east during the late morning into
early afternoon hours, encountering low 60s F dewpoints over the
central Appalachians. Tropospheric lapse rates should be poor,
yielding thin MLCAPE profiles in the 500-1000 J/kg range. The lack
of stronger buoyancy should limit the severe threat to a degree.
Nonetheless, strengthening and veering of the 850-500 mb flow with
height will encourage curved/elongated hodographs with 40-50 kts of
effective bulk shear. A broken squall line should develop ahead of
the cold front, perhaps with transient rotating cells, capable of
mainly damaging gusts, warranting the introduction of Category
1/Marginal risk probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025

$$