999
ACUS03 KWNS 300724
SWODY3
SPC AC 300723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least a few storms capable of producing severe wind/hail and
perhaps a tornado are all possible across portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will become centered over the TN Valley on Tuesday as
a mid-level trough becomes situated over the Interior West, and
multiple embedded impulses overspread the Great Lakes and Northeast
regions. Rich low-level moisture will become established along the
periphery of the upper ridge, overspread by cooler temperatures and
stronger flow aloft with the passage of the aforementioned impulses.
Strong to severe thunderstorms may result, especially over portions
of the Northeast.

...Portions of the Northeast...
Deterministic guidance members are beginning to demonstrate a
consensus in depicting an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting from
the Great Lakes and impinging on the lower Hudson Valley while
pivoting around the upper ridge. While mid-level lapse rates
accompanying this perturbation may not be particularly steep, (e.g.
between 6.5-7 C/km), rich low-level moisture (e.g. low to mid 70s F
dewpoints) will be present. Furthermore, forecast soundings depict
appreciably curved and elongated hodographs, suggesting some storms
may obtain supercell structures. A severe wind and hail threat may
accompany the stronger storms and a tornado cannot be ruled out.
There is the potential for earlier day clouds and precipitation,
which may yield a differential heating zone. Should this occur,
severe potential may be confined to this baroclinic boundary. Since
the specifics on the placement of such a boundary are too difficult
to pinpoint this far in advance, a Category 2/Slight Risk has been
introduced with the understanding that these probabilities may be
modified in future outlooks.

...Parts of the Midwest...
Deep-layer ascent will be limited farther west across the Midwest as
a series of embedded impulses glance the region to the north.
Nonetheless, 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread 70+ F
surface dewpoints from IA to lower MI Tuesday afternoon, yielding
over 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Appreciable sized hodographs will also
coincide with this buoyancy as the eastern part of a strengthening
low-level jet impinges on the Midwest. Given the limited ascent,
storm coverage is highly uncertain and may end up being quite sparse
at best. Nonetheless, Marginal Risk probabilities were introduced
given the favorable thermodynamic/kinematic space within a close
distance of the low-amplitude upper trough.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2026

$$