220
ACUS03 KWNS 161928
SWODY3
SPC AC 161928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to
Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into
parts of Virginia into North Carolina.

...Southern SD into NE...western IA...
A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will
stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the
Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA
and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low
pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds
will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a
developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z.

In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this
boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest
low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show
substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and
IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given
strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low
probabilities for wind have been introduced.

...VA into NC...
Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a
weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high
to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps
sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing
outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this
time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities
this far out.

..Jewell.. 07/16/2025

$$