360
ACUS03 KWNS 211929
SWODY3
SPC AC 211928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
northern Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail is the
primary threat.

...Synopsis...
A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS on Day
3/Sunday as multiple mid-level troughs progress across the
Northeast, the Plains states, and the Pacific Northwest,
respectively. At the surface, high pressure and static stability
will become established east of the MS River to the East Coast, and
over much of the Interior West, limiting thunderstorm potential over
these regions. However, the amplification of the central U.S.
mid-level trough will encourage surface lee troughing and subsequent
southerly moisture return across portions of the central and
southern Plains, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
likely. Strong flow aloft over TX will overspread a moist axis,
where adequate coinciding buoyancy and vertical wind shear will
support an isolated severe threat. Otherwise, a few lightning
flashes are possible along the Pacific Northwest coastline with the
passage of a mid-level trough and accompanying cooler temperatures
aloft.

...Portions of southwestern into central TX...
As the mid-level trough overspreads TX through the period, a
southerly low-level jet will develop, particularly after 00Z, when
850 mb southerly flow will exceed 35 kts. A relatively stable
boundary layer will remain in place Sunday through Sunday night.
However, atop this layer, seasonably rich moisture around 850 mb,
beneath 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield 1000-1500
J/kg of MUCAPE, which is adequate for supporting strong but elevated
thunderstorms. From late afternoon into the overnight hours,
increased isentropic lift above the stable boundary layer, driven by
the approaching mid-level trough, will promote an increase in
thunderstorms through the evening over western and central TX. The
southerly 35 kt low-level jet, overspread by 50-70 kt mid-level
southwesterlies from the upper trough, will yield elongated
hodographs and up to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This shear, and
aforementioned MUCAPE, will support the potential for elevated
supercells late Sunday afternoon and overnight, with severe hail
possible.

..Squitieri.. 11/21/2025

$$