640
ACUS03 KWNS 231921
SWODY3
SPC AC 231920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of
southeastern Arizona on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
High amplitude ridging will build in across the central US on
D3/Saturday. West to northwesterly flow aloft will move through the
northern periphery of the ridge across the Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley.

...Southeastern Arizona...
Surface high pressure across the Four Corners will bring favorably
moist east to southeasterly flow into southeastern Arizona.
Convection will likely develop along the high terrain and spread
westward with time through the afternoon/evening. Deep layer shear
around 20-25 kts may allow for isolated organized storms capable of
severe gusts, given deeply mixed profiles and steep low to mid-level
lapse rates amid inverted-v soundings.

...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region...
Several embedded disturbances will rotate through the flow across
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. Moderate to strong
instability is progged to extend across this region, however,
warming in the 850-700 mb will likely result in strong capping
across much of the region from the Great Lakes into the Midwest and
Ohio Valley. This will likely inhibit convective development and
overall severe potential in these regions.

..Thornton.. 07/23/2026

$$